Fermi Paradox

The Fermi Paradox was the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extra-terrestrial civilizations, even though the probability of extra-terrestrial civilizations is very high. It was named after physicist Enrico Fermi in a 1975 paper by Michael H. Hart. The basic tenants of which are listed below:

• There are billions of stars in the Milky Way similar to the Sun.^[4][5]
• With high probability, some of these stars have Earth-like planets,^[6][7] and if the Earth is typical, some may have already developed intelligent life.
• Some of these civilizations may have developed interstellar travel, a step the Earth is investigating now.
• Even at the slow pace of currently envisioned interstellar travel, the Milky Way galaxy could be completely traversed in a few million years.^[3]
• And since many of the stars similar to the Sun are billions of years older, this would seem to provide plenty of time.

In short, the probability of alien civilizations is so high, that the fact that humanity managed to be first civilization to control the entirety of the Milky Way and it's closest neighbors is incredibly unlikely.

For thousands of years, scientist have been trying to understand what has happened, and with new data, the Fermi Solution has been created. This "solution" is a set of data and observation compiled into an overarching theory explaining why humanity was first even though other civilizations had inhabited the Milky Way and its neighbors long before. This is not the only solution, but it is the most probable.

The Fermi Solution

Below, are probabilities explaining why so many civilizations fail, in order from most to least common:

• Torward the center of a galaxy, intelligent life is less probable as more super novae and gamma ray bursts occur in that area. Sterilizing most planets that ever had intelligent life (while bacterial life is fairly resistant). This eliminates almost 50% of planets.
• Ten percent of planets are Einsam Class Objects (meaning they were ejected from their galaxy). These objects, while fully capable of producing intelligent life, very rarely have that life leave the system, as the prospect of travelling thousands of light years to the nearest star is far too daunting.
• Ten percent of civilizations never leave their home system (for a multitude of reasons).
• Five percent of civilizations are sterilized by a comet or similar.
• Another five percent kill themselves in a global conflict, typically causing a mass extinction event (nuclear, thermonuclear, antimatter, etc. See Vinos as an example)
• Three percent never develop faster than light technology.
• Two percent kill themselves with a non-self-aware artificial intelligence.
• Two percent destroy their planet via climate change.
• One percent kill themselves with self replicating nanobots (although this only seems to delay self aware life by a few billion years, see Ror Units or Xentari as an example)
• One percent are killed with a super-plague they cannot eradicate.
• 0.5% of civilizations