Fermi Paradox

The Fermi Paradox is the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extra-terrestrial civilizations, even though the probability of extra-terrestrial civilizations is very high. It was named after physicist Enrico Fermi in a 1975 paper by Michael H. Hart. The basic tenants of which are listed below:

• There are billions of stars in the Milky Way similar to the Sun.
• With high probability, some of these stars have Earth-like planets, and if the Earth is typical, some may have already developed intelligent life.
• Some of these civilizations may have developed interstellar travel, a step the Earth is investigating now.
• Even at the slow pace of currently envisioned interstellar travel, the Milky Way galaxy could be completely traversed in a few million years.
• And since many of the stars similar to the Sun are billions of years older, this would seem to provide plenty of time.

In short, the probability of alien civilizations is so high, that the fact that humanity managed to be first civilization to control nearly the entirety of the Milky Way and it's closest neighbors is incredibly unlikely.

For thousands of years, scientist have been trying to understand what has happened, and with new data, the Fermi Solution has been created. This "solution" is a set of data and observation compiled into an overarching theory explaining why humanity was first even though other civilizations had inhabited the Milky Way and its neighbors long before.

The Fermi Solution

Elimination of Planets

Below, are probabilities explaining why so many planets are unable to have civilizations form on them.

• Toward the center of a galaxy, intelligent life is less probable as more supernovae and gamma ray bursts occur in that area. Sterilizing most planets that ever had intelligent life (while bacterial life is fairly resistant). This eliminates almost 50% of planets.
• Ten percent of planets are Einsam Class Objects (meaning they were ejected from their galaxy). These objects, while fully capable of producing intelligent life, very rarely have that life leave the system, as the prospect of travelling thousands of light years to the nearest star is far too daunting.
• Five percent of civilizations are sterilized by a comet or similar.

Elimination of Civilizations

Below are things that destroy civilizations. Approximately 50% of civilizations destroy themselves, while 20% are destroyed by external causes.

• Five percent kill themselves in a global conflict, typically causing a mass extinction event (nuclear, thermonuclear, antimatter, etc. See Vinos as an example)
• Another five percent destroy their planet via climate change.
• Two percent kill themselves with a non-self-aware artificial intelligence.
• One percent kill themselves with self replicating nanobots (although this only seems to delay self-aware life by a few billion years, see Ror Units or Xentari as an example)
• One percent are killed with a super-plague they cannot eradicate.
• 0.5% of civilizations kill themselves by accidentally dropping an asteroid on their planet during the early days of asteroid harvesting on their planet.

Other Solutions

Miscellaneous solutions. They typically are cultural in nature.

• Sixty-five percent of civilizations never attempt to become a galactic civilization, only ever opting to control a few systems.
• Ten percent of civilizations never leave their home system (for a multitude of reasons).
• Ten percent never develop faster than light technology.
• Five percent still try to colonize the galaxy without FTL, taking millions of years. In that time, the civilization collapses and they cease expansion efforts (usually)

Analysis

In truth, over 55% of planets usually have their life die out on them before they can sustain a civilization. This does not mean that civilizations cannot form near the center of the galaxy, far from it. It is that the majority of civilizations form in areas that have a lower density of stars.

The planets that do form civilizations have a 90% chance to yield a civilization that is simply not very competitive. Humans, for example, are very competitive and expansionist. They would run over any civilization that let them. Despite only making up a small fraction of the population, they hold more political offices per capita than any other species. This is due to their hyper-aggressive nature (relative to most species).

Another example are the